Population politics back on stage
One of the silent arguments Bhutan insist on 1990 eviction spree was that this small country cannot sustain multiculturalism and that Dzongkha speaking community might become endangered due to growing population of other ethnic groups.
In one instance in Geneva, a Bhutanese politician had mentioned that world community must extend hand for Bhutanese ruling group not to be pushed into an endangered species.
And obviously, the population in southern Bhutan was growing suddenly. Single family sometimes have as many as 18 children. The population growth even today is faster in south compared to north. The Indian migration is continuing, already around 87,000 Indians working in Bhutan.
Latest projection for Bhutan’s population in 30 years’ time is double to what is there today. This is based on growth rate of 1.8%. World Bank says, Bhutan’s population growth is just 1.5% while CIA fact book mentions 1.2%. But all these figures are not sure. Bhutan has never come out with its real population figure.
According to US country studies, when Bhutan’s first national census was conducted in 1969, the population officially stood at 930,614 persons. Before 1969 population estimates had ranged between 300,000 and 800,000 people. The 1969 census has been criticized as inaccurate. By the time the 1980 census was held, the population reportedly had increased to approximately 1,165,000 persons. The results of the 1988 census had not been released as of 1991, but preliminary government projections in 1988 set the total population at 1,375,400 persons, whereas UN estimates stood at 1,451,000 people in 1988. Other foreign projections put the population at 1,598,216 persons in July 1991. It is likely, however, that Bhutan’s real population was less than 1 million and probably as little as 600,000 in 1990. Moreover, the government itself began to use the figure of “about 600,000 citizens” in late 1990.
If the population doubled by that year, without doubt, Dzongkha population will be lesser. It is due to their vulnerable culture. And as population dwindles, fear is likely to rise again about extinction. Those resettled in south are more likely to get acquainted with Indian and Gurkha cultures in neighbouring states.
Fears have already surfaced that the government might not be able to provide an improved standard of living on a sustainable basis. And the sustainability is more linked to the ruling group. Additionally, the GNHC, the national planning agency fear that natural resources will exhaust, forests will be cleared, lot of investment is required for infrastructure, unemployment will be beyond government’s control and severe pressure on carrying capacity of the land.
How much land carries? Are there any criteria for this? Let’s wait until the end of this year when GNHC finalises the draft of population policy in order to stabilise the population size. Critical aspects of the policy would be to concretise the measures on how to control the possible baby boom when 56 percent young people join the group of reproductive population and how the migration problem will be addressed. Let’s hope, Bhutan will not step to this third attempt for eviction of its citizens on charges of being illegal immigrants.