Nepal: Crisis of wee hours
27 May. That’s the deadline for Nepalese Constituent Assembly to promulgate new constitution. However, the assembly is yet to prepare its draft.
Over two dozen parties represented at the assembly have already extended the 2-year term to write new constitution by another two years. After all efforts, there is unlikely to see any light at the end of the tunnel. Another motive to extend the assembly term has been put to an end by Supreme Court.
The country has come to stand still since last two weeks. Businesses, schools, public services, transport – all have stopped working. Hundreds of organizations – including political parties are competing to call strike. They are in queue waiting their turn. The streets, offices and schools are deserted. Only demonstrating groups are on streets with their flags, plaques.
The biggest cause of political uncertainty was invited by the currently largest party in the assembly – Unified Nepal Communist Party (Maoists) who promised many ethnic groups for federalism based on ethnicity. While, the country has over 100 ethnic groups, ethnic federalism has least chance to work. The party proposed for only 14 ethnic groups to have privilege to name states with their identity.
The rightist Nepali Congress, and other left Nepal Communist Party (United Marxist Leninist) oppose the concept of ethnic federalism and suggest 6-7 states would work well for Nepal. After four years of debate, these three big parties come in agreement t accept 11 states, whereby the states names to be determined by state assembly in future.
People from far west region hit the streets in millions against any possible disintegration of the region while adopting federalism. Right after parties agreed to keep the region intact, other ethnic groups sprouted to streets against disintegrated far west.
The Madhesh based parties, split in several groups but have common voice for one state in southern belt, and indigenous groups sternly objected the three-party agreement. And it pushed Nepal into dead end. Several rounds of talks with indigenous groups and Madhes based parties failed to yield any fruitful results, inviting further uncertainties, chaos and hardships in the country.
Pushpa Kamal Dahal, popularly called Prachanda, who is the central figure of the current political scene, is being alleged to have encouraged the indigenous groups for demonstrations. He has not made any comments. However, he is a kind of character in Nepalese politics who rarely takes any concrete stand, agrees to whichever groups table their demand and do not live up to the promises given. He is alleged to have cleansed himself of the ‘people’s war’ mentality – which he led for 10 years ending 2006. Yet, he bears greater responsibilities for success and failure of the current peace process.
If we look at the precedence of political leaders taking decision, it is wee hours they choose. If the culture is to continue, no one can predict whether Nepal will have a constitution on 28 May or not. But considering court verdict and fueling political chaos, the political parties will have a narrow escape on either way – promulgate new constitution or impose emergency. The second options will further push the country into turmoil and disorder. Already derailed development activities and economy will further shrink.