What awaits us in next decade
We are closer to crossing the quarter of this century. The technological advancement of this century has been outside imagination while politics has grown to be divisive and regional. Globalisation was the tune of the time while democracies and liberalisation flourished well. Reflecting those impressive development in two decades, it may be very hard to predict what comes in the next decade but not impossible to guess the generic line to which we are heading.
The new decade has started with some unwanted and unprecedented evets – Australia is burnt down to ashes and escalating political instability in the middle east and Africa. These events are symbolic to us telling this third decade of the century will be fully occupied by political instability and climate change wraths.
Politics
The trade war between China and US is the dominating rumble now. The two sides are likely to come to negotiating table as US election nears – for Trump is looking for every opportunity to ensure voters turn positive for his win this year. He has made early negotiations with China which are though not in line with his aggressive push made until recently.
China has always persuaded to avoid confrontation as the extension of the trade conflict will have more impact on its economy. Whether going into agreement or confrontation, US is likely to lose on the trade battle.
The trade war is less about economics but more about politics. The western world led by US is very much worried about China being dominant in near future. West has ruled the world for centuries and surrendering power to someone else is not easy – that too to a country still counted as developing in their own definition.
US politics is heading to uncertain and re-election of Trump cannot be avoided. His re-election will ultimately divide western democracies and capitalists. We have already see the rift between US and EU as EU moves more to socialist democracy while hardliners continue to outnumber in US.
Brexit will substantially diminish EU influence and is very likely to be pushed close to China domain, eventually. Australia will have little power in resisting China’s growth in the region.
Climate change
This is likely to be the hottest topic. Politics will revolve around this, activism will heighten and natural catastrophes will continue to hunt. We will have lot more Greta Thunbergs and Madhav Subramanians.
Evaluation of Sustainable Development Goals in 2030 will give us reflection whether the world leadership has adhered to its commitments made in 2015. And the results are unlikely to be positive.
Landslides, fires, industrial expansion and human population growth surely will have negative impact ecological balance and bio-diversity. Many species are heading to extinction. The process will be further accelerated with many organisms unbale to resist the winds of climate change and increasing heat.
We may see more frequent droughts resulting in food shortage – food security will be the biggest threat to human civilisation. It will not just be in next decade but continue to worsen thereafter. Loss of ice and rising sea level will threaten the existence of many island nations. We will face more and more numbers of climate refugees.
Business
Economic indicators for last several years have not portrayed positive future. World has not regained its strength from GFC. The secondary market has been running bearish in most circumstances. The world is likely to face another financial crash. Earlier this crash, better will be opportunities for recover from it and set a new leg for next phase of growth.
PwC prediction for next decade is slowing down of economic growth in advance economics while developing economies continue to grow. On average, global economy is heading to negative growth. Which also indicate, financial crash may not be imminent but towards the end of this decade. In that case, we will have one more worse decade to live.
China is definite to take over the global economic leadership. China’s GDP is projected to reach USD65 trillion whereas as US’s projection is at USD32 trillion. India is likely to follow China in the second place with USD46 trillion GDP projection.
Technology
We hardly can image what technology brings us. It is outside the square. Augmented reality and artificial intelligence will be reality. Ultrafast internet and possible Web 3.0 will transform our lifestyle – the way we live, we shop, we work and travel. Automation will dominate the workforce.
Autonomous vehicles will be new normal and necessary requirement. Construction and manufacturing is likely to be controlled by 3D printing technology. However, when it comes to technology – future depends on how quickly we adopt the new inventions.
Technology will invite new dimension in treatment of diseases and improving human wellbeing.